Weak Domestic Market, Strong Exports: China’s Auto Exports Set to Top 10 Million Vehicles in 2026
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2026-10-19
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2026.10.12

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Data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) on the 12th shows that China's vehicle production and sales reached 23.246 million and 23.271 million units respectively in the first three quarters of 2026, both down 4.5% year on year.
In September, vehicle production and sales stood at 2.99 million and 2.956 million units, respectively, up 11.4% and 9.0% month on month, but down 8.7% and 8.4% year on year.
Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), observed that China's vehicle production and sales edged down in the first three quarters, with domestic demand remaining subdued while exports continued to perform strongly. Multiple factors continued to weigh on the domestic automotive market, with no meaningful improvement to date. Despite a complex and challenging external environment, exports maintained rapid growth, demonstrating strong resilience. Meanwhile, new growth drivers continued to be unleashed, and new energy vehicles accounted for a steadily increasing share of total vehicle sales.
NEVs performed strongly. From January to September, China's NEV production and sales reached 12.483 million and 12.472 million units, respectively, both up more than 10% year on year. Over the period, NEVs' share of total new vehicle sales rose to 53.6%.
In September, NEV production and sales reached 1.814 million and 1.823 million units, respectively, up 12.2% and 13.6% year on year. The share of NEVs in total new vehicle sales for the month hit a record high of 61.6%.
In September, NEV production and sales reached 1.814 million and 1.823 million units, respectively, up 12.2% and 13.6% year on year. NEVs accounted for a record 61.6% of total new vehicle sales for the month.
Since June, China's monthly vehicle exports have exceeded 1 million units for four consecutive months, with NEVs accounting for more than 50% of exports in each of those months.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Chen noted that the automotive industry is expected to remain broadly stable. Exports are expected to continue growing, with full-year exports potentially exceeding 10 million vehicles. RMB 250 billion in funding for consumer-goods trade-in programs has been fully allocated, and existing policy measures are expected to become more effective. Combined with consumption stimulus initiatives by local governments and businesses, these measures could help narrow the decline in domestic vehicle sales.
Chen added that the recently released plan for the development of the intelligent connected new energy vehicle industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period provides strategic guidance for the sector’s development from 2026 to 2030. The plan focuses on breakthroughs in key technologies, vehicle-road-cloud integration, optimization of the industrial structure, improvements in industry governance and international expansion. It aims to promote a shift in the industry’s development from scale expansion to quality improvement, helping Chinese brands further strengthen their global competitiveness.
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Southeast/South/East China Business Department, New Energy Marketing Centre
Ternary Cathode Materials Industry (Domestic Markets)
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Japan& Korea Business Department, New Energy Marketing Center
Ternary Cathode Materials Industry (Japanese &Korean Markets)
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European& American Business Department, New Energy Marketing Center
Ternary Cathode Materials Industry (European& American Markets)
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Operation Department, Recycling Industry Group
Domestic Waste Power Battery and Material Recycling Industry